Bill Gross Is On the Alert as Momentum Mania Sweeps Wall Street

Bitcoin rallying to the moon, meme stocks surging for no good reason, bearish bets cratering all at once. 

For observers without a sense of Wall Street’s long history, the great market mania of 2024 seems new and dangerous. To Bill Gross, who turned 80 this year, this kind of frenzy at the fringes of American markets has been a fact of life for investors since before he was born.

“Will Rogers is famous for saying: ‘Don’t gamble. Take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it ‘till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it,’” the retired Pacific Investment Management co-founder said in an email to Bloomberg Thursday and later in a social-media posting, referring to the gambling spirits sweeping markets.

The aphorism from the late humorist Rogers amounts to a century-old endorsement of momentum investing – a strategy that has worked all year and caught another wind with the re-election of Donald Trump. “I am heeding this herd wave but am wary of circumstances that may slow or end this party,” said Gross, who touts defensive-looking trades including dividend-rich companies and banks.  

The risk party raged anew on Friday after data showing the continued vigor of the labor market. The S&P 500 ended the week at fresh records and the Nasdaq 100 is up more than 28% this year. Credit markets continue to validate the good vibes across Corporate America, with borrowing premiums sitting at the lowest in more than two decades. 

Along the way, the last-remaining short traders are taking hits. Among 126 ETFs that seek to profit from declines, only 14 are up this year and the average loss is 27%, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. For every single dollar invested in these so-called inverse funds, there’s $11 betting on gains instead across leveraged long ETFs, based on the amount of money tracking those strategies. An index tracking the most-shorted stocks is up some 30% this year alone.

“It’s hard to be bearish on risk right now,” said Cayla Seder, macro multi-asset strategist at State Street. “Liquidity remains abundant, the Fed has started its cutting cycle all while economic data continue to generally surprise on the upside.”